Technical Analysis

Market Review for November 27, 2018

Economic data released through the Asian session this morning was limited to October trade figures out of New Zealand.

For the Kiwi Dollar, there was more bad news following some particularly disappointing 3rd quarter retail sales figures released on Monday, with the trade deficit widening in October, year-on-year, from NZ$5,330m to NZ$5,790m, which is the highest annual trade deficit since October 2007.

According to NZ Stats:

  • Monthly imports hit a record NZ$6.2bn in October, rising above September’s previous record high NZ$5.9bn, the continued rise attributed to higher prices for crude oil and a pullback in the Kiwi Dollar.
  • Import values for October were NZ$758 (14%) higher than in October 2017, with the rise spread across a range of commodities, through petroleum and producers were the main contributor, up NZ$257m (68%).
  • On the export front, total exports rose by NZ$303m (6.6%) in October to NZ$4.9bn compared with October 2017, with exports sitting at their highest level for any October month.
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Support and Resistance for November 26 2018 - US Session

Support Resistance:

Currency Pair EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD Dow Jones
GOLD
Resistance 3 1.1480 1.2950 114.20 0.7350 24800 1230.00
Resistance 2 1.1420 1.2905 113.70 0.7305 24740 1227.50
Resistance 1 1.1380 1.2880 113.40 0.7270 24700 1225.00
Market 1.1340 1.2825 113.52
0.7232 24650 1223.00
Support 1 1.1320 1.2805 112.70 0.7205 24600 1222.50
Support 2 1.1270 1.2770 112.20 0.7170 24540 1220.00
Support 3 1.1240 1.2720 111.70 0.7140 24500 1217.50
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Support and Resistance for November 26 2018 - European Session

Support Resistance:

Currency Pair EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD Dow Jones
GOLD
Resistance 3 1.1480 1.2950 114.20 0.7350 24700 1232.50
Resistance 2 1.1420 1.2905 113.70 0.7305 24640 1230.00
Resistance 1 1.1380 1.2880 113.40 0.7270 24600 1227.50
Market 1.1368 1.2834 113.26
0.7262 24550 1226.00
Support 1 1.1320 1.2805 112.70 0.7205 24500 1222.50
Support 2 1.1270 1.2770 112.20 0.7170 24440 1220.00
Support 3 1.1240 1.2720 111.70 0.7140 24400 1217.50
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Economic releases a week ahead 26-30 November 2018

On the Macro

For the Dollar, it’s a busy week ahead, with key stats including consumer confidence figures on Tuesday, finalized 3rd quarter GDP and new home sales figures on Wednesday, pending home sales, October inflation and consumer spending on Thursday and PMI numbers on Friday. Outside of the stats, the FOMC meeting minutes on Thursday, FOMC member chatter and the G20 Summit will also provide direction. The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up 0.47% to $96.916.

For the EUR, key stats include German business expectations figures out on Monday, consumer confidence and unemployment figures out of Germany on Wednesday and Thursday, with prelim November inflation out of Spain, France, Germany, Italy and the Eurozone due out on Thursday and Friday, with German retail sales figures and the Eurozone’s unemployment rate on Friday also there to consider. Outside the stats, ECB President Draghi will be speaking on Monday, with EU Summit reports from the weekend to also consider.  The EUR/USD ended the week down 0.68% to $1.1337.

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Market Review for November 26, 2018

Economic data released through the Asian session this morning included 3rd quarter retail sales figures out of New Zealand and flash November manufacturing numbers out of Japan.

For the Kiwi Dollar, quarter-on-quarter retail sales stagnated in the 3rd quarter, falling well short of a forecasted 1% rise, following a 1.1% rise in the 2nd quarter. Core retail sales rose by just 0.4%, following a revised 1.3% rise in the 2nd quarter, which fell short of a forecasted 1.5% rise.

According to the figures, released by NZ Stats:

  • Department stores had the largest increase in the quarter, surging by 7.4% quarter-on-quarter, though much of the rise was attributed to a change in reporting format.
  • Across the 15 retail industries, 8 saw an increase in sales by volume, with 5 seeing a decline, the largest sector in decline being food & beverage services, quarter-on-quarter.
  • Excluding department store sales, which came in ahead of the pack due to the change in reporting methods, electrical and electronic goods retailing saw the largest volume increase in sales over the quarter.
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